This paper studies how foreign ownership of maritime infrastructure reshapes inland trade networks. I combine hand-collected data on Chinese state-backed acquisitions of European ports with 1.5 million truck-level shipments linking 331 NUTS2 European regions between 2011 and 2022. Using a continuous-treatment event study that leverages the policy-driven and externally timed rollout of China’s Maritime Silk Road, I estimate heterogeneous effects across European regions based on their baseline port reliance. Regions more exposed to Chinese port acquisitions experience relatively larger contractions in trade along both the intensive and extensive margins. The results reveal a reconfiguration of trade corridors, consistent with a shift toward containerized transport within existing industrial structures. From a policy perspective, the results speak directly to Europe’s strategic concerns in the governance of critical trade infrastructure.
Presented at: 23rd Conference on Research in Economic Theory & Economics, LBS, Carlos III, Aix-Marseille, U. of Piraeus, Sveriges Riksbank, OECD, European Central Bank, IE University
Monetary Policy and Regional Inequality,
with de Groot, Hauptmeier, Holm-Hadulla. ECB Working Paper 2385. R&R at The Economic Journal.
We study the impact of monetary policy on regional inequality using granular data on economic activity at the city- and county-level in Europe. We document pronounced heterogeneity in the regional patterns of monetary policy transmission. The output response to monetary policy shocks is stronger and more persistent in poorer regions, with the difference becoming particularly pronounced in the tails of the distribution. Regions in the lower parts of the distribution exhibit hysteresis, consisting of long-lived adjustments in employment and labor productivity in response to the shocks. As a consequence, policy tightening aggravates regional inequality and policy easing mitigates it. Finally, we provide a structural interpretation of our results using a New Keynesian Currency Union Model with hysteresis effects.
Presented at: EEA*, AEA*, LBS, ECB, CEBRA*, IAAE*, WFC*, SRSA, Paris Dauphine PhD Workshop, LSE, ICMAIF
The Globalization of Corporate Control,
with Fonseca and Papaioannou. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 146, 2023.
The internationalization of corporate control is a complex and poorly understood aspect of globalization, as it is challenging to trace controlling shareholders due to often opaque structures of ownership. We identify controlling shareholders for 22,000 listed firms to study the globalization of control. The network of international control appears very sparse, with strong home bias. A baseline gravity structure works well, as bilateral links are more potent for populous, affluent, and proximate countries. Institutions and tax haven status at source and destination play a modest role. Legal similarities, economic policy coordination, and cultural, linguistic, and historical ties play a non-negligible role. Policy and legal similarities matter for financial institutions and banks, while informational/cultural barriers matter more for individuals/families. International diversification motives play no major role. The results have implications for theoretical works on the internationalization of corporate control markets.
*Presented at: NBER ISoM 2022*, LBS, Bank of Chile*, Goethe University*
Policy Writing:
- Monetary Policy and Inequality (with Hauptmeier & Holm-Hadulla). ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 2, 2021.
- How to Lower Student Loan Defaults: Simplify Enrollment in Income-Driven Repayment Plans (with Yannelis). Manhattan Institute Policy Report, 2019.
Early Stage:
- Monetary Policy Transmission through Trade and Infrastructure Networks - Evidence from Strategic Ports in Europe